Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 13
18 March 2006Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 8.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 7Maurizio Zaffiri
- 8Josh Sole
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 11Ludovico Nitoglia
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 15Cristian Stoica+7.0
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 19Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 20Simon Picone+3.8
- 21Rima Wakarua-Noema
- 22Ezio Galon
Scotland
- 1Gavin Kerr
- 2Scott Lawson-0.4
- 3Bruce Douglas
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Scott Murray
- 6Jason White(c)+12.3
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 10Gordon Ross+3.2
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Marcus di Rollo
- 14Chris Paterson+1.8
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Dougie Hall-1.1
- 17Craig Smith
- 18Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 19Jon Petrie
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Dan Parks+4.1
- 22Simon Webster+9.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.