Italy v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
3 – 39
3 February 2007Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v France
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 7.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Andrea Scanavacca
- 11Andrea Masi-5.0
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Denis Dallan-0.8
- 15Roland de Marigny
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 19Roberto Mandelli
- 20Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 21Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 22Kaine Robertson-1.3
France
- 1Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 9Pierre Mignoni-1.1
- 10David Skrela
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Florian Fritz
- 13Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 14Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 18Pascal Pape+1.7
- 19Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 22Vincent Clerc+1.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 5 |
| — | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.