Ireland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 13
24 February 2007Croke Park, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v England
- Kick-off
- 17:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 7.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.7 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Rory Best
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Denis Leamy+5.0
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
- 16Jerry Flannery+3.4
- 17Simon Best+5.9
- 18Mick O'Driscoll
- 19Neil Best
- 20Isaac Boss
- 21Paddy Wallace
- 22Andrew Trimble+3.5
England
- 1Perry Freshwater
- 2George Chuter
- 3Phil Vickery(c)+2.7
- 4Louis Deacon-1.1
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Magnus Lund
- 8Martin Corry-6.2
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11David Strettle
- 12Andy Farrell
- 13Mike Tindall+3.5
- 14Josh Lewsey
- 15Olly Morgan
Replacements
- 16Lee Mears+2.3
- 17Julian White-1.4
- 18Tom Palmer+2.1
- 19Tom Rees
- 20Shaun Perry
- 21Toby Flood-1.2
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.