Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 20
15 March 2008Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 12.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Simon Picone+3.8
- 10Andrea Masi-5.0
- 11Ezio Galon
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15Andrea Marcato
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 19Jaco Erasmus
- 20Pietro Travagli
- 21Enrico Patrizio
- 22Alberto Sgarbi
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Fergus Thomson
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Scott Macleod
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair(c)+4.5
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Chris Paterson+1.8
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Simon Webster+9.7
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Craig Smith
- 19Jason White+12.3
- 20Kelly Brown+3.1
- 21Rory Lawson-3.0
- 22Andrew Henderson-4.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.