South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
53 – 8
30 August 2008Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 15.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 36 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Brian Mujati
- 4Andries Bekker+0.8
- 5Victor Matfield(c)-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Jongi Nokwe
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Adrian Jacobs-2.7
- 14Odwa Ndungane
- 15Conrad Jantjes
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 18Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 19Luke Watson
- 20Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 21Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 22Percy Montgomery+0.2
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Matt Dunning+1.3
- 4James Horwill+1.4
- 5Hugh McMeniman
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9Sam Cordingley-3.1
- 10Matt Giteau+3.8
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Timana Tahu
- 13Stirling Mortlock(c)+4.4
- 14Peter Hynes
- 15Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17Al Baxter
- 18Dean Mumm+2.1
- 19George Smith
- 20Brett Sheehan
- 21Ryan Cross
- 22Drew Mitchell+1.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 1 |
| 5 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.