France v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 13
14 February 2009Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 0.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Fabien Barcella
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Lionel Nallet(c)-5.4
- 5Romain Millo-Chluski
- 6Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 7Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Sebastien Tillous-Borde
- 10Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 11Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 12Benoit Baby
- 13Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 14Maxime Médard+1.5
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Renaud Boyoud
- 18Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 19Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 20Morgan Parra-0.8
- 21Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 22Julien Malzieu-0.9
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 4Jason White+12.3
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair(c)+4.5
- 10Phil Godman
- 11Thom Evans
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Max Evans
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Dougie Hall-1.1
- 17Moray Low-1.2
- 18Kelly Brown+3.1
- 19Scott Gray
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Chris Paterson+1.8
- 22Nick de Luca
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.