Italy v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
8 – 50
21 March 2009Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v France
- Kick-off
- 13:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 6.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Luke McLean
- 11Matteo Pratichetti
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Guilio Rubini
- 15Andrea Marcato
Replacements
- 16Franco Sbaraglini
- 17Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 18Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 19Josh Sole
- 20Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 21Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 22Roberto Quartaroli
France
- 1Fabien Barcella
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 4Lionel Nallet(c)-5.4
- 5Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 6Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13Florian Fritz
- 14Maxime Médard+1.5
- 15Damien Traille+3.1
Replacements
- 16William Servat+1.4
- 17Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 18Jerome Thion-2.8
- 19Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 20Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 21Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 22Julien Malzieu-0.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 7 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.