England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 17
6 February 2010Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 5.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Tim Payne
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3David Wilson+7.0
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Steve Borthwick(c)-11.3
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ugo Monye
- 12Toby Flood-1.2
- 13Mathew Tait+7.9
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Delon Armitage
Replacements
- 16Steve Thompson+3.2
- 17Dan Cole+1.5
- 18Louis Deacon-1.1
- 19Steffon Armitage
- 20Paul Hodgson
- 21Dan Hipkiss
- 22Ben Foden
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Gareth Williams
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Andy Powell
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13James Hook-12.6
- 14Tom James
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17Rhys Gill
- 18Bradley Davies+0.8
- 19Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 20Richie Rees
- 21Andrew Bishop
- 22Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.