France v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 10
20 March 2010Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v England
- Kick-off
- 19:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 14.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.4 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 5Julien Pierre
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Alexis Palisson
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Marc Andreu
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 18Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 19Alexandre Lapandry
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21David Marty+6.7
- 22Julien Malzieu-0.9
England
- 1Tim Payne
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Louis Deacon-1.1
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Lewis Moody(c)+1.4
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10Toby Flood-1.2
- 11Chris Ashton+3.4
- 12Riki Flutey
- 13Mike Tindall+3.5
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Ben Foden
Replacements
- 16Steve Thompson+3.2
- 17David Wilson+7.0
- 18Tom Palmer+2.1
- 19James Haskell+0.9
- 20Ben Youngs+2.3
- 21Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.