Australia v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 13
24 July 2010Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
What the model says about Australia v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 15.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 3Salesi Ma'afu
- 4Dean Mumm+2.1
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Rocky Elsom(c)
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Richard Brown
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Rob Horne-3.3
- 14James O'Connor-0.2
- 15Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Rob Simmons-1.5
- 19Ben McCalman+5.9
- 20Luke Burgess
- 21Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 22Kurtley Beale+3.5
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3BJ Botha
- 4Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Ryan Kankowski
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Gio Aplon
- 15Zane Kirchner
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 18Flip van der Merwe+0.1
- 19Dewald Potgieter
- 20Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 21Butch James+0.9
- 22Juan de Jongh-2.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.