France v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 21
5 February 2011Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 9.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Julien Pierre
- 5Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Maxime Médard+1.5
- 12Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 13Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Damien Traille+3.1
Replacements
- 16Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 17Luc Ducalcon
- 18Jerome Thion-2.8
- 19Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 22Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Alastair Kellock(c)+2.2
- 6Nathan Hines-2.0
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Kelly Brown+3.1
- 9Rory Lawson-3.0
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Max Evans
- 12Nick de Luca
- 13Joe Ansbro
- 14Nikki Walker
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Dougie Hall-1.1
- 17Moray Low-1.2
- 18Richie Vernon
- 19Ross Rennie
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 22Sean Lamont+5.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.