Ireland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 25
13 February 2011Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 6.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 9.0 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Tomas O'Leary
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Fergus McFadden+2.9
- 15Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Tom Court
- 18Leo Cullen+1.0
- 19Denis Leamy+5.0
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21Ronan O'Gara
- 22Paddy Wallace
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Julien Pierre
- 5Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Maxime Médard+1.5
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 17Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 18Jerome Thion-2.8
- 19Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 22Vincent Clerc+1.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 6 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.