England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 9
26 February 2011Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v France
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 8.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Louis Deacon-1.1
- 5Tom Palmer+2.1
- 6Tom Wood+0.3
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Toby Flood-1.2
- 11Mark Cueto+0.8
- 12Shontayne Hape
- 13Mike Tindall(c)+3.5
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Ben Foden
Replacements
- 16Steve Thompson+3.2
- 17Alex Corbisiero
- 18Simon Shaw-2.6
- 19Hendre Fourie
- 20Danny Care+3.0
- 21Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 22Matt Banahan
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Julien Pierre
- 5Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 8Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 17Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 18Jerome Thion-2.8
- 19Julien Bonnaire
- 20Morgan Parra-0.8
- 21Damien Traille+3.1
- 22Alexis Palisson
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.