Italy v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 21
12 March 2011Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v France
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 8.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Robert Barbieri-5.8
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Fabio Semenzato
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Quintin Geldenhuys
- 19Paul Derbyshire-1.1
- 20Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 21Kris Burton
- 22Luke McLean
France
- 1Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Julien Pierre
- 5Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 17Luc Ducalcon
- 18Jerome Thion-2.8
- 19Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 20Julien Tomas
- 21Damien Traille+3.1
- 22Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.