England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 16
13 March 2011Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 8.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.9 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Alex Corbisiero
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Louis Deacon-1.1
- 5Tom Palmer+2.1
- 6Tom Wood+0.3
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Toby Flood-1.2
- 11Mark Cueto+0.8
- 12Shontayne Hape
- 13Mike Tindall(c)+3.5
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Ben Foden
Replacements
- 16Steve Thompson+3.2
- 17Paul Doran Jones
- 18Simon Shaw-2.6
- 19Tom Croft-2.9
- 20Danny Care+3.0
- 21Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 22Matt Banahan
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Moray Low-1.2
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Alastair Kellock(c)+2.2
- 6Nathan Hines-2.0
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Kelly Brown+3.1
- 9Rory Lawson-3.0
- 10Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 11Max Evans
- 12Sean Lamont+5.6
- 13Joe Ansbro
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Geoff Cross-3.7
- 18Richie Vernon
- 19Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Dan Parks+4.1
- 22Nick de Luca
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.