Ireland v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 6
17 September 2011Eden Park, Auckland · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v Australia
- Kick-off
- 08:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 11.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 8.3 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Stephen Ferris
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Tom Court
- 18Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 19Denis Leamy+5.0
- 20Conor Murray-1.4
- 21Ronan O'Gara
- 22Andrew Trimble+3.5
Australia
- 1Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 5James Horwill(c)+1.4
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7Ben McCalman+5.9
- 8Radike Samo-1.7
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 12Pat McCabe
- 13Anthony Fainga'a
- 14James O'Connor-0.2
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Rob Simmons-1.5
- 19Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 20Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 21Luke Burgess
- 22Drew Mitchell+1.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 52.0% | Territory | 48.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 270m | Carry metres | 292m |
| 6 | Defenders beaten | 8 |
| 90 | Passes | 87 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 82 | Tackles made | 86 |
| 8 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 7 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 71.4% | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 5 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 52 | Scrums won | 48 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Rucks won | 49 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.