Wales v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
8 – 9
15 October 2011Eden Park, Auckland · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v France
- Kick-off
- 08:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 13.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.9 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10James Hook-12.6
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Lloyd Burns
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Bradley Davies+0.8
- 19Ryan Jones+7.9
- 20Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 21Stephen Jones+0.2
- 22Scott Williams+3.8
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Pascal Pape+1.7
- 5Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Morgan Parra-0.8
- 11Alexis Palisson
- 12Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 13Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Fabien Barcella
- 18Julien Pierre
- 19Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 20Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 21Jean-Marc Doussain
- 22Cedric Heymans-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0% | Possession | 34.0% |
| 65.0% | Territory | 35.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 321m | Carry metres | 255m |
| 11 | Defenders beaten | 7 |
| 161 | Passes | 58 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 58 | Tackles made | 154 |
| 7 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 11 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 70.0% | Lineout success | 84.6% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 33 | Scrums won | 32 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Rucks won | 41 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 9 |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.