Australia v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 18
21 October 2011Eden Park, Auckland · neutral venue
What the model says about Australia v Wales
- Kick-off
- 07:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 15.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Salesi Ma'afu
- 4James Horwill(c)+1.4
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Ben McCalman+5.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Digby Ioane
- 12Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14James O'Connor-0.2
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17Ben Alexander-3.4
- 18Rob Simmons-1.5
- 19Radike Samo-1.7
- 20Luke Burgess
- 21Anthony Fainga'a
- 22Rob Horne-3.3
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins(c)+2.5
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Paul James-6.0
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Bradley Davies+0.8
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 8Ryan Jones+7.9
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10James Hook-12.6
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Lloyd Burns
- 17Ryan Bevington
- 18Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 19Andy Powell
- 20Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 21Stephen Jones+0.2
- 22Scott Williams+3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 34.0% | Possession | 66.0% |
| 36.0% | Territory | 64.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 351m | Carry metres | 340m |
| 8 | Defenders beaten | 7 |
| 119 | Passes | 182 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 171 | Tackles made | 84 |
| 7 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 8 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 81.8% | Lineout success | — |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 32 | Scrums won | 33 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 55 | Rucks won | 126 |
| — | Mauls won | 3 |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.