France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 12
4 February 2012Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- -4.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Vincent Debaty
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Pascal Pape+1.7
- 5Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Julien Malzieu-0.9
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 18Yoann Maestri
- 19Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 20Morgan Parra-0.8
- 21Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 22Maxime Mermoz-3.2
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Cornelius van Zyl
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Robert Barbieri-5.8
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Kris Burton
- 11Luke McLean
- 12Alberto Sgarbi
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Tommaso d'Apice
- 17Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 18Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 19Simone Favaro+10.6
- 20Fabio Semenzato
- 21Tobie Botes
- 22Gonzalo Canale
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.