France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 17
4 March 2012Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 7.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.8 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Pascal Pape+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Julien Malzieu-0.9
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16William Servat+1.4
- 17Vincent Debaty
- 18Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 19Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 20Julien Dupuy
- 21Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 22Maxime Mermoz-3.2
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Stephen Ferris
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Keith Earls-4.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Tom Court
- 18Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 19Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21Ronan O'Gara
- 22Fergus McFadden+2.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.