Australia v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 19
15 September 2012Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
What the model says about Australia v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 10:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 12 m
- Temperature
- 16.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Kane Douglas-3.4
- 5Nathan Sharpe(c)+6.6
- 6Dave Dennis
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Radike Samo-1.7
- 9Nick Phipps-0.5
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Digby Ioane
- 12Pat McCabe
- 13Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 14Dom Shipperley
- 15Berrick Barnes+6.4
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 19Liam Gill
- 20Brett Sheehan
- 21Anthony Fainga'a
- 22Kurtley Beale+3.5
Argentina
- 1Rodrigo Roncero
- 2Eusebio Guinazu
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Manuel Carizza-12.9
- 5Patricio Albacete
- 6Julio Farias Cabello
- 7Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 8Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe(c)
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 11Horacio Agulla
- 12Santiago Fernandez
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Gonzalo Camacho
- 15Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Juan Pablo Orlandi
- 18Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 19Tomas Leonardi
- 20Nicolas Vergallo
- 21Martin Rodriguez Gurruchage
- 22Juan Imhoff+8.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.