England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
38 – 18
2 February 2013Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 2.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Tom Youngs
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Geoff Parling-5.6
- 6Tom Wood+0.3
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Ben Morgan
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Mike Brown
- 12Billy Twelvetrees
- 13Brad Barritt-4.9
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Alex Goode-2.4
Replacements
- 16Dylan Hartley
- 17David Wilson+7.0
- 18Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 19Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 20James Haskell+0.9
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Toby Flood-1.2
- 23David Strettle
Scotland
- 1Ryan Grant
- 2Dougie Hall-1.1
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7Kelly Brown(c)+3.1
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Sean Lamont+5.6
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Moray Low-1.2
- 18Geoff Cross-3.7
- 19Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 20David Denton-0.1
- 21Henry Pyrgos
- 22Duncan Weir-1.7
- 23Max Evans
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.