England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 11
10 March 2013Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 2.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Tom Youngs
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Geoff Parling-5.6
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Tom Wood+0.3
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10Toby Flood-1.2
- 11Mike Brown
- 12Brad Barritt-4.9
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Alex Goode-2.4
Replacements
- 16Dylan Hartley
- 17David Wilson+7.0
- 18Joe Marler+2.8
- 19Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 20Tom Croft-2.9
- 21Ben Youngs+2.3
- 22Freddie Burns
- 23Billy Twelvetrees
Italy
- 1Alberto de Marchi
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Robert Barbieri-5.8
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Luke McLean
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 19Antonio Pavanello
- 20Francesco Minto
- 21Simone Favaro+10.6
- 22Tobie Botes
- 23Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.