France v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 16
16 March 2013Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 5.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.7 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Antonie Claassen
- 7Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Maxime Médard+1.5
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Yoann Huget+2.1
Replacements
- 16Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 17Vincent Debaty
- 18Luc Ducalcon
- 19Christophe Samson
- 20Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 21Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 22Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 23Gaël Fickou+2.9
Scotland
- 1Ryan Grant
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7Kelly Brown(c)+3.1
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Duncan Weir-1.7
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Sean Lamont+5.6
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Dougie Hall-1.1
- 17Moray Low-1.2
- 18Geoff Cross-3.7
- 19Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 20Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 21Henry Pyrgos
- 22Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 23Max Evans
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.