Scotland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
0 – 20
8 February 2014Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v England
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 4.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.6 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Ryan Grant
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Moray Low-1.2
- 4Tim Swinson
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 7Chris Fusaro
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Duncan Weir-1.7
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Geoff Cross-3.7
- 19Jonny Gray-7.0
- 20Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 21Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 22Duncan Taylor
- 23Max Evans
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Tom Wood+0.3
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Billy Twelvetrees
- 13Luther Burrell
- 14Jack Nowell+4.7
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Tom Youngs
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Henry Thomas
- 19Dave Attwood
- 20Ben Morgan
- 21Lee Dickson
- 22Brad Barritt-4.9
- 23Alex Goode-2.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.