France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 10
9 February 2014Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 6.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.8 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Pascal Pape(c)+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 7Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Jean-Marc Doussain
- 10Jules Plisson
- 11Hugo Bonneval
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Brice Dulin-3.5
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Yannick Forestier
- 18Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 19Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 20Damien Chouly
- 21Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 22Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 23Gaël Fickou+2.9
Italy
- 1Alberto de Marchi
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Francesco Minto
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Tommaso Iannone
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Michele Rizzo
- 18Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 19Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 20Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 21Tobie Botes
- 22Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 23Angelo Esposito
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.