France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 22
15 March 2014Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 9.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Thomas Domingo+4.1
- 2Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Pascal Pape(c)+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 7Alexandre Lapandry
- 8Damien Chouly
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Remi Tales
- 11Maxime Médard+1.5
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Brice Dulin-3.5
Replacements
- 16Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 17Vincent Debaty
- 18Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 19Alexandre Flanquart
- 20Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 21Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 22Jean-Marc Doussain
- 23Maxime Mermoz-3.2
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Devin Toner+4.4
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Chris Henry
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Dave Kearney
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Jack McGrath
- 18Marty Moore
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Jordi Murphy
- 21Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Fergus McFadden+2.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.