France v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 8
7 February 2015Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 0.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Alexandre Menini
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Pascal Pape+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 8Damien Chouly
- 9Rory Kockott
- 10Camille Lopez+2.7
- 11Teddy Thomas
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Scott Spedding
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Uini Atonio+0.4
- 18Eddy Ben Arous
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Loann Goujon
- 21Morgan Parra-0.8
- 22Remi Tales
- 23Remi Lamerat
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Rob Harley
- 7Blair Cowan
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 13Mark Bennett-0.3
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Geoff Cross-3.7
- 19Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 20Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 21Sam Hidalgo-Clyne
- 22Peter Horne+2.1
- 23Dougie Fife
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.