Ireland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 11
14 February 2015Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v France
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 6.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Devin Toner+4.4
- 5Paul O'Connell(c)-2.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Simon Zebo-1.2
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Marty Moore
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Jordi Murphy
- 21Isaac Boss
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Felix Jones
France
- 1Eddy Ben Arous
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Pascal Pape+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 8Damien Chouly
- 9Rory Kockott
- 10Camille Lopez+2.7
- 11Teddy Thomas
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Scott Spedding
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Uini Atonio+0.4
- 18Vincent Debaty
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Loann Goujon
- 21Morgan Parra-0.8
- 22Remi Tales
- 23Remi Lamerat
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.