England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 17
14 February 2015Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 5.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.8 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Dave Attwood
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Luther Burrell
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Tom Youngs
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Kieran Brookes
- 19Nick Easter+2.6
- 20Tom Croft-2.9
- 21Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 22Danny Cipriani
- 23Billy Twelvetrees
Italy
- 1Alberto de Marchi
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4George Biagi
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Francesco Minto
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Kelly Haimona
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Andrea Masi-5.0
- 13Luca Morisi+0.0
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Andrea Manici
- 17Matias Aguero+1.9
- 18Dario Chistolini
- 19Joshua Furno
- 20Samu Vunisa
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 23Giulio Bisegni
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.