England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 13
14 March 2015Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 5.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Dave Attwood
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jack Nowell+4.7
- 12Luther Burrell
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Tom Youngs
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Kieran Brookes
- 19Geoff Parling-5.6
- 20Tom Wood+0.3
- 21Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 22Danny Cipriani
- 23Billy Twelvetrees
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Rob Harley
- 7Blair Cowan
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tommy Seymour
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Mark Bennett-0.3
- 14Dougie Fife
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Ryan Grant
- 18Geoff Cross-3.7
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 21Adam Ashe
- 22Sam Hidalgo-Clyne
- 23Greig Tonks
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.