Italy v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
0 – 29
15 March 2015Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 9.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.4 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Matias Aguero+1.9
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Dario Chistolini
- 4George Biagi
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Francesco Minto
- 7Samu Vunisa
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Andrea Masi-5.0
- 13Luca Morisi+0.0
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Andrea Manici
- 17Alberto de Marchi
- 18Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 19Quintin Geldenhuys
- 20Marco Barbini
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 23Enrico Bacchin
France
- 1Eddy Ben Arous
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Alexandre Flanquart
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 8Loann Goujon
- 9Sebastien Tillous-Borde
- 10Camille Lopez+2.7
- 11Noa Nakaitaci
- 12Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Scott Spedding
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 18Vincent Debaty
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Damien Chouly
- 21Rory Kockott
- 22Jules Plisson
- 23Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.