England v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
55 – 35
21 March 2015Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v France
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 6.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Geoff Parling-5.6
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jack Nowell+4.7
- 12Luther Burrell
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Tom Youngs
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Kieran Brookes
- 19Nick Easter+2.6
- 20Tom Wood+0.3
- 21Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 22Danny Cipriani
- 23Billy Twelvetrees
France
- 1Vincent Debaty
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Alexandre Flanquart
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 8Loann Goujon
- 9Sebastien Tillous-Borde
- 10Jules Plisson
- 11Noa Nakaitaci
- 12Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Yoann Huget+2.1
- 15Scott Spedding
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 18Uini Atonio+0.4
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Damien Chouly
- 21Rory Kockott
- 22Remi Tales
- 23Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| England | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 5 |
| 7 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.