France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 21
6 February 2016Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:25 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 10.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Eddy Ben Arous
- 2Guilhem Guirado(c)+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Paul Jedrasiak
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Damien Chouly
- 7Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Sebastien Bezy
- 10Jules Plisson
- 11Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Hugo Bonneval
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Uini Atonio+0.4
- 18Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 19Alexandre Flanquart
- 20Yacouba Camara
- 21Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 22Jean-Marc Doussain
- 23Maxime Mermoz-3.2
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Ornel Gega
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4George Biagi
- 5Marco Fuser
- 6Francesco Minto
- 7Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Carlo Canna+1.5
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15David Odiete
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Matteo Zanusso
- 18Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 19Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 20Dries van Schalkwyk
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Kelly Haimona
- 23Luke McLean
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.