Scotland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 15
6 February 2016Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v England
- Kick-off
- 16:50 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 4.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7John Hardie
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tommy Seymour
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Mark Bennett-0.3
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Blair Cowan
- 21Sam Hidalgo-Clyne
- 22Duncan Weir-1.7
- 23Duncan Taylor
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Chris Robshaw
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jack Nowell+4.7
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Paul Hill
- 19Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 20Jack Clifford
- 21Ben Youngs+2.3
- 22Alex Goode-2.4
- 23Ollie Devoto
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.