Italy v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 40
14 February 2016Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v England
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 12.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 19.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Ornel Gega
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4George Biagi
- 5Marco Fuser
- 6Francesco Minto
- 7Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Carlo Canna+1.5
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Matteo Zanusso
- 18Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 19Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 20Braam Steyn+4.4
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 23Andrea Pratichetti
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Chris Robshaw
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jack Nowell+4.7
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Paul Hill
- 19Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 20Maro Itoje-12.4
- 21Jack Clifford
- 22Danny Care+3.0
- 23Alex Goode-2.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 5 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.