Scotland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 18
13 March 2016Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 9.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7John Hardie
- 8Josh Strauss+6.2
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 13Duncan Taylor
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Moray Low-1.2
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 21Sam Hidalgo-Clyne
- 22Peter Horne+2.1
- 23Sean Lamont+5.6
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Alexandre Flanquart
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Yacouba Camara
- 8Damien Chouly
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 12Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 15Scott Spedding
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Uini Atonio+0.4
- 18Vincent Pelo
- 19Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 20Loann Goujon
- 21Sebastien Bezy
- 22Jules Plisson
- 23Maxime Médard+1.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.