France v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 31
19 March 2016Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v England
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 5.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Alexandre Flanquart
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Damien Chouly
- 7Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 8Loann Goujon
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 12Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 15Scott Spedding
Replacements
- 16Camille Chat-3.8
- 17Uini Atonio+0.4
- 18Xavier Chiocci
- 19Paul Jedrasiak
- 20Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 21Sebastien Bezy
- 22Jules Plisson
- 23Maxime Médard+1.5
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Kruis+4.6
- 6Chris Robshaw
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jack Nowell+4.7
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Kieran Brookes
- 19Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 20Jack Clifford
- 21Ben Youngs+2.3
- 22Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 23Elliot Daly-1.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 3 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 7 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.