South Africa v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 10
1 October 2016Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
What the model says about South Africa v Australia
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 1354 m
- Temperature
- 20.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Vincent Koch-5.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Oupa Mohoje
- 8Warren Whiteley
- 9Rudy Paige
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 12Juan de Jongh-2.5
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Bryan Habana+1.1
- 15Patrick Lambie+6.5
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Julian Redelinghuys
- 19Lood de Jager-4.9
- 20Willem Alberts+10.1
- 21Jaco Kriel
- 22Lionel Mapoe
- 23Willie le Roux+4.6
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Dean Mumm+2.1
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Sean McMahon+6.7
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Reece Hodge
- 12Bernard Foley-0.8
- 13Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 14Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16James Hanson
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Tom Robertson+2.2
- 19Kane Douglas-3.4
- 20Scott Fardy
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 23Sefa Naivalu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.