Argentina v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 33
8 October 2016Allianz Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about Argentina v Australia
- Kick-off
- 18:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 12.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.6 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Lucas Noguera Paz
- 2Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Javier Ortega Desio
- 8Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 11Ramiro Moyano
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Santiago Garcia Botta
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 20Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 21Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 22Gabriel Ascarate
- 23Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Rory Arnold-6.0
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Dean Mumm+2.1
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Lopeti Timani
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Reece Hodge
- 12Bernard Foley-0.8
- 13Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 14Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16James Hanson
- 17Tom Robertson+2.2
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Kane Douglas-3.4
- 20Scott Fardy
- 21Leroy Houston
- 22Nick Phipps-0.5
- 23Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.