South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 57
8 October 2016Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 20.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Vincent Koch-5.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Oupa Mohoje
- 8Warren Whiteley
- 9Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Juan de Jongh-2.5
- 14Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 15Patrick Lambie+6.5
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Julian Redelinghuys
- 19Lood de Jager-4.9
- 20Willem Alberts+10.1
- 21Jaco Kriel
- 22Lionel Mapoe
- 23Willie le Roux+4.6
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Matt Todd
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9TJ Perenara-8.3
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Waisake Naholo
- 12Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Israel Dagg-2.1
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Liam Squire
- 20Ardie Savea-6.0
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22Lima Sopoaga
- 23George Moala
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 9 |
| — | Conversions | 6 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.