France v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 16
12 February 2017Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 3.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.6 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Loann Goujon
- 7Kevin Gourdon
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 10Camille Lopez+2.7
- 11Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Remi Lamerat
- 14Noa Nakaitaci
- 15Scott Spedding
Replacements
- 16Christopher Tolofua
- 17Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 18Xavier Chiocci
- 19Julien Ledevedec
- 20Damien Chouly
- 21Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 22Jean-Marc Doussain
- 23Yoann Huget+2.1
Scotland
- 1Allan Dell-3.1
- 2Fraser Brown-1.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Josh Strauss+6.2
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tommy Seymour
- 12Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20John Hardie
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Duncan Weir-1.7
- 23Mark Bennett-0.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| France | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.