England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
36 – 15
26 February 2017Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 10.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.1 mm
- Wind
- 34 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Maro Itoje-12.4
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Nathan Hughes
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Ben Te'o
- 14Jonny May-3.0
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Kyle Sinckler
- 19Tom Wood+0.3
- 20Jack Clifford
- 21Ben Youngs+2.3
- 22Henry Slade0.0
- 23Jack Nowell+4.7
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Ornel Gega
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4Marco Fuser
- 5Dries van Schalkwyk
- 6Braam Steyn+4.4
- 7Simone Favaro+10.6
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Luke McLean
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Giulio Bisegni
- 15Edoardo Padovani+0.5
Replacements
- 16Tommaso d'Apice
- 17Michele Rizzo
- 18Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 19George Biagi
- 20Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 21Giorgio Bronzini
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.