England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
61 – 21
11 March 2017Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 11.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Maro Itoje-12.4
- 7James Haskell+0.9
- 8Nathan Hughes
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Jack Nowell+4.7
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Kyle Sinckler
- 19Tom Wood+0.3
- 20Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Ben Te'o
- 23Anthony Watson-0.9
Scotland
- 1Gordon Reid+0.3
- 2Fraser Brown-1.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 9Ali Price-11.2
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Allan Dell-3.1
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Cornell du Preez
- 21Henry Pyrgos
- 22Duncan Weir-1.7
- 23Mark Bennett-0.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 3 |
| 7 | Conversions | 3 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.