New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
57 – 0
16 September 2017North Harbour Stadium, Albany
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 29 m
- Temperature
- 12.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.6 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Kane Hames
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Liam Squire
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 14Nehe Milner-Skudder
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Codie Taylor-2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 19Scott Barrett+2.6
- 20Ardie Savea-6.0
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Lima Sopoaga
- 23Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Ruan Dreyer
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Jean-Luc du Preez
- 8Uzair Cassiem
- 9Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Courtnall Skosan
- 12Jan Serfontein+12.9
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Raymond Rhule
- 15Andries Coetzee
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 19Lood de Jager-4.9
- 20Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 21Rudy Paige
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23Damian de Allende-0.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | — |
| 7 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.