Italy v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 46
4 February 2018Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v England
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 6.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 5Dean Budd
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Renato Giammarioli
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Marcello Violi
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Tommaso Castello
- 13Tommaso Boni
- 14Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 15Matteo Minozzi
Replacements
- 16Luca Bigi
- 17Nicola Quaglio
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19George Biagi
- 20Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 21Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Jayden Hayward
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Maro Itoje-12.4
- 6Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 7Chris Robshaw
- 8Sam Simmonds
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Ben Te'o
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Alec Hepburn
- 18Harry Williams
- 19George Kruis+4.6
- 20Sam Underhill+3.4
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 23Jack Nowell+4.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 7 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.