England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 6
10 February 2018Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 4.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.5 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Maro Itoje-12.4
- 6Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 7Chris Robshaw
- 8Sam Simmonds
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Alec Hepburn
- 18Harry Williams
- 19George Kruis+4.6
- 20Sam Underhill+3.4
- 21Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 22Ben Te'o
- 23Jack Nowell+4.7
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Cory Hill+7.7
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 7Josh Navidi+6.8
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Rhys Patchell
- 11Steffan Evans
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Scott Williams+3.8
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Gareth Anscombe+3.7
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Wyn Jones+0.5
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Bradley Davies+0.8
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Aled Davies
- 22Owen Watkin-4.4
- 23George North+8.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.