France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 17
23 February 2018Orange Velodrome, Marseille
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 20:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 5.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Paul Gabrillagues
- 5Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Yacouba Camara
- 8Marco Tauleigne
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 11Remy Grosso
- 12Geoffrey Doumayrou
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Benjamin Fall
- 15Hugo Bonneval
Replacements
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 5Dean Budd
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Marcello Violi
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Tommaso Castello
- 13Tommaso Boni
- 14Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 15Matteo Minozzi
Replacements
- 16Luca Bigi
- 17Nicola Quaglio
- 18Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 19George Biagi
- 20Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 21Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Jayden Hayward
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.