Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 8
10 March 2018Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 8.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 9.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4James Ryan-8.4
- 5Devin Toner+4.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Dan Leavy
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Jack McGrath
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Jordi Murphy
- 21Kieran Marmion
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
Scotland
- 1Gordon Reid+0.3
- 2Stuart McInally-3.8
- 3Simon Berghan-0.6
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Sean Maitland+4.2
- 12Peter Horne+2.1
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18WP Nel+4.2
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20David Denton-0.1
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Nick Grigg
- 23Lee Jones
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.