France v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 16
10 March 2018Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v England
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 12.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.9 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Paul Gabrillagues
- 5Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Yacouba Camara
- 8Marco Tauleigne
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Remy Grosso
- 12Geoffrey Doumayrou
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Benjamin Fall
- 15Hugo Bonneval
Replacements
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Maro Itoje-12.4
- 6Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 7Chris Robshaw
- 8Nathan Hughes
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Ben Te'o
- 14Jonny May-3.0
- 15Anthony Watson-0.9
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Kyle Sinckler
- 19James Haskell+0.9
- 20Sam Simmonds
- 21Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 22Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 23Mike Brown
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.